PREMIER LEAGUE BETTING TIPS
The Premier League will officially be back underway on August 10th when Manchester United host Leicester City at Old Trafford. This makes to be a very exciting season. Manchester City looks to repeat as champions coming off one of the most dominant seasons in club history where they reached the 100-point mark clearing the table by a dominant 19 points over second place Manchester United. Have Man City done enough to maintain that top spot this year or has one of the other number of strong teams in the Premier League done enough to close the 19-point gap and overtake the top spot from the reigning champs. In the article below I will be providing you with all the bets you need to dominate the Premier League season with full analysis behind each pick. I have also included my EPL standings prediction to help you get a read on whether teams have improved, or whether they will fall in the standings. Make sure you keep checking the website or subscribe to my expert sports betting picks to make sure you are beating the books all year round.
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PREMIER LEAGUE STANDINGS PREDICTION
|1. Liverpool||6. Arsenal||11. Leicester City ||16. Newcastle|
|2. Manchester City||7. Everton||12. Wolverhampton||17. Bournemouth|
|3. Manchester United ||8. South Hampton||13. Brighton ||18. Cardiff City|
|4. Tottenham||9. West Ham United||14. Fulham||19. Watford|
|5. Chelsea||10. Crystal Palace||15. Burnley||20. Huddersfield Town|
|1. Liverpool||11. Leicester City|
|2. Manchester City||12. Wolverhampton|
|3. Manchester United||13. Brighton|
|4. Tottenham||14. Fulham|
|5. Chelsea||15. Burnley|
|6. Arsenal||16. Newcastle|
|7. Everton||17. Bournemouth|
|8. South Hampton||18. Cardiff City|
|9. West Ham United||19. Watford|
|10. Crystal Palace||20. Huddersfield Town|
PREMIER LEAGUE FUTURES
Pick: LIVERPOOL +400
Most people believe the reigning champions Manchester City will repeat with ease and it shows it. Man City are -150 favorites which does not represent enough value to justify placing a future bet on them. A futures bet should be one with plenty of value and I don’t think it is there with Man City. I think we are going to see a neck and neck battle at the top of the table this year. Liverpool are the only team in the Premier League to make a serious effort to catch the champs with other teams focusing on more minor improvements.
After making it all the way to the Champions League final a season ago, Liverpool have covered all their weaknesses in the transfer market with 4 very key signings. Starting at the back what had to have been one Liverpool’s fans favorite acquisitions the team acquired Brazilian goalie Allison Becker to replace the Champions League scape goat Loris Karius. Next Liverpool completely rebuilt their midfield by first signing Naby Keita and Fabinho. Keita has all the makings of a world class midfielder and I believe he is going to shock a lot of people with his play for Liverpool this season. In Fabinho, the Reds are getting a great Brazilian defensive midfielder. His gritty defensive play will be a massive boost to the Reds this season. Last season Liverpool were very thin behind their star attacking trio of Mane, Firmino and Salah so what do they do? They go out and get Switzerland international winger Xherdan Shaqiri. Shaqiri was a major force both at the World Cup for the Swiss and for Stoke City last year. He factored into over 50% of Stoke City’s goals last season. If he can provide similar productivity he will be a massive piece off their bench and for depth in case of injury. In the Champions League final last year, the team showed how thin they were behind their star 3 when Mo Salah went out injured.
They replaced him with Adam Lallana and he failed to really create anything on the wing. Shaqiri is a huge insurance piece and upgrade here. No team scored more goals than Liverpool and Man City last year. The improvements Liverpool made on the defensive side of the ball will be very key in allowing them to get the ball forward to their attackers allowing them to play with more freedom and creativity leading me to believe that they will be able to shut down attacks better and use their speed on the wings combined with their skill in the middle and play making ability from the midfield to improve on last season’s goal total. They still may not be done on the transfer market. Liverpool has been linked with attacker Nebil Fekir of Lyon and if they can land him from Lyon it would be a major upgrade to an already world class attack. I believe with the improvements Liverpool have made to an already very solid team they will be able to compete with Man City for the top of the table. There is a lot of value grabbing Liverpool at +400 as I believe the odds should be lower tighter to Manchester City.
Longshot: TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR +2000
This team has yet to make any moves on the transfer market which has frustrated some fans. However, this team is very talented, and they proved that with a third place Premier League finish which earned them a Champions League birth. The Spurs are led by superstar English national team striker Harry Kane who is the golden boot favorite this year after he scored 30 in the Premier League last season. Kane’s primary setup man is star playmaker and Danish international Christian Eriksen. The attacks also supported by Korean star forward Son Heung-Min and attacking midfielder Dele Alli.
They also feature talented midfielders in English national Eric Dier and the Brazilian Lucas who was brought in last transfer window from Paris SG. In the back they feature defenders Danny Rose, Jan Vertonghen and Kieran Trippier they play in front of world cup gold medal winning goal keeper Hugo Lloris. This Tottenham side features a ton of talent. I believe not making any additions to this side is not a bad thing. Giving a team this talented another year to build chemistry and gel could be all the improvement they need to make a run up the Premier League table this season. They offer some very solid value at +2000.
GOLDEN BOOT WINNER: MOHAMED SALAH +450
I am backing the reigning Golden Boot winner to reclaim his title this season. There will be no hungrier player in the Premier League this season than Salah. After his Champions League Final injury last season that cost him 2 games for his country at the World Cup Salah will have his sights set on dominating the Premier League this season. He scored 32 goals last season while assisting on 10 others.
No other player put up numbers like this with assists to go along with the goals, but this just shows Salah’s involvement in the Liverpool attack. Liverpool will be looking to make a run in the Premier League this season and Salah will need to have another dominant season for them to do so.
GOLDEN BOOT LONGSHOT: GABRIEL JESUS +1000
Last season the scoring race came down to Salah vs Kane as they scored 32 and 30 goals respectively. If there is going to be a third name in that race this season I believe it will be Brazilian striker Gabriel Jesus. The pacey Brazilian forward scored 13 goals in the Premier League season last season but there are numbers to suggest this number could sky rocket this season. First off, Jesus is only 19 years old meaning we can definitely expect to see improvement from the young striker. Second, Jesus averaged scoring every 129 minutes played which was good for fourth in the Premier League.
Lastly, he only played slightly over half of the minutes that Salah and Kane played last season. If Jesus can carve out more playing time for this dominant Man City offense we could see a very high goal total from him this upcoming campaig
TO BE RELEGATED: HUDDERSFIELD TOWN +100
Huddersfield Town barely survived relegation last season after manager David Wagner did a great job keeping them up last season. They finished just 4 points above relegation and just 6 points above the bottom of the table. They will likely not be so lucky this year with three pretty talented teams coming up from the Championship in Wolverhampton, Fulham and Cardiff City. Huddersfield only managed to net 28 goals last season which was tied for last in the Premier League. Australian international Aaron Mooy will be relied upon to create offense for this side and that is simply just not good enough to compete.
They also had their defensive struggles last season allowing 58 goals that led to a -30-goal differential which is by far the worst for any team returning from the Premier League last season. While they did make a couple of additions this off season it will not be enough to keep them out of relegation.
*There is great value in taking Huddersfield to finish bottom at +400 as I believe they will be in a battle with Cardiff City for the bottom of the table*
TO FINISH IN THE TOP 10: WEST HAM UNITED +110
West Ham should be much more comfortable and accustomed to playing at their new home in London this season. They made a monster splash in the offseason this year to help their cause breaking the club transfer record for Brazilian winger Felipe Anderson. The former Lazio wide man will be a major asset for the club as he will most likely lineup on the opposite side of Marko Arnautovic.
They also added English midfielder Jack Wilshere on a free transfer. Add Manuel Lanzini into that mix and West Ham have a very solid core. I can definitely see them moving into the top 10 after this off season’s smart acquisitions.
FINISH TOP 10: Crystal Palace +200
Manager Roy Hodgson does not get enough credit for what he has done as manager of Crystal Palace. He led them all the way up to the 11th position a season ago and have definitely done enough to improve their side to move up one ranking into the top 10. Crystal Palace are led by star forward Wilfried Zaha. Playing beside him in the middle is Christian Benteke. Two years ago, he banked 15 goals for Crystal Palace and if he can find that scoring touch again Crystal Palace will be tough to stop.
They have already landed midfielders Cheikhou Kouyate from West Ham and Max Meyer on a free transfer from Schalke to round out the squad. This team has the potential to do some damage in the Premier League this season.
TOP SOUTH CLUB: SOUTHAMPTON +150
Southampton made some massive improvements in this offseason. They landed center back Jannik Vestergaard, winger Mohamed Elyounoussi and Celtic midfielder Stuart Armstrong who is already looking like a major bargain. The team took a big step back last year finishing the season in 17th place after their four previous campaigns saw them land in the top 10. They did the right thing this off season retooling their side and should be back and ready to compete for a top 10 spot this season.
Southampton are a class above their other South Region competitors Bournemouth and Brighton who I project will both finish near the 15th spot in the table.
TOP 2 PREMIER LEAGUE CLUBS (NO ORDER)
Liverpool has joined Man City in that top class of teams after the brilliant signings made by Klopp this summer. I see these two teams battling it out for top of the table clearing the rest of the league by a comfortable amount of points.
MANCHESTER CITY +185
Getting this kind of value on this bet is a steal. Manchester City had already separated themselves from the rest of the league when they put up a 100-point season winning the Premier League title.
LIVERPOOL OVER 80.5 GOALS -110
As I stated earlier, the signings Liverpool made this summer will allow them to be much more creative this season. They managed 84 goals in last year’s campaign. Behind Salah, Firmino and Mane Liverpool should be able to easily cover the 80.5 goal total as I expect them to improve on their total from last year and finish the season up with around 90 goals.
MANCHESTER CITY – GABRIEL JESUS OVER 18.5 GOALS -110
This is a much more realistic bet for Gabriel Jesus to have a breakout season. As stated earlier, he scored 13 goals last season while only playing just over half the minutes the top scorers in the league played. Jesus will see a huge jump in his game especially after getting to play in the World Cup for his home country Brazil this summer. With increased playing time this season Jesus should find himself in the 20+ goal range for Manchester City.
TOTTENHAM OVER 67.5 GOALS -110
This a very low total for Tottenham. They scored 74 goals last season and have one of the most dangerous attacks in the Premier League. Striker Harry Kane broke out on a global stage in this World Cup taking home the Golden Boot after netting 30 goals in the Premier League a season before. He will have the likes of Christian Eriksen, Deli Alli and Son Heung-Min providing quality service. I project Tottenham to finish around their 74-goal total from a season ago.
TEAM POINT TOTALS
SOUTHAMPTON OVER 42.5 POINTS -110
43 points would have put Southampton in 13th place last season. They come into this season on the back of a 36-point season that saw them finish 17th. They have made many big improvements to the club this season to be able to vault themselves up the table this year. I have them down as one of the most improved teams coming into this season. Their goal differential also suggested they could have earned a few more points last season. They finished with a -19 differential which was better than any other team that finished between 13th and 20th. Expect them to get past the 42.5 point mark this year.
MANCHESTER UNITED UNDER 76.5 POINTS -110
Manchester Utd put up 81 points last season which had them finishing in second place, but I don’t think they will get there this year. They were passed in skill this summer by Liverpool and I have them finishing down in third place. There is a lot of drama going on with this team right now. The biggest thing holding this team back could be their manager Jose Mourinho who has done a lot of complaining about his own team and other teams spending and they have not had a good preseason at all. They have won only one of their six games in 90 minutes. This team is definitely due for some regression.
MANCHESTER CITY OVER 86.5 POINTS -110
I was shocked when I saw this line sitting at 86.5. I mean, we are talking about the reigning Premier League Champions here that dominated the table putting up 100 points. The team got even better this summer bringing in Riyad Mahrez from Leicester City. This team backed by tons of star power and very deep pockets should have no problem blowing past the 86.5-point total.
ARSENAL UNDER 70.5 POINTS -110
There is some major change going on at Arsenal with new manager Unai Emery taking the reins from long time manager Arsene Wagner. While the move is definitely a positive change for Arsenal who definitely needed it there will be a tough adjustment period. Other than a good attack Arsenal still has a lot of holes in their team and they also lack solid depth. Arsenal is going to be a better team this year, but I don’t think they have improved enough from their 63.5-point total a season before to warrant getting a 70.5-point total.
I hope you enjoyed reading this and that you found some bets you like to get you ready for the upcoming season. We are going to have a massive year in the Premier League. Make sure you are checking back here so you don’t miss any of the action. I look forward to crushing the books with you.